• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

New

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

Watch Fortune Daily, our new video show that brings you inside the Fortune newsroom and the boardroom

TechA Boom With A View

Meet the Firm That’s Betting Against the Startup Bubble

By
Erin Griffith
Erin Griffith
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Erin Griffith
Erin Griffith
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 4, 2016, 9:42 AM ET
Boom With A View by Erin Griffith: Social Media
Illustration by Aleksandar Savic
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Betting against the startup market is tricky, since the companies are privately held. (Yesterday I outlined a few ways some investors are attempting to do it anyway.) I could only find one firm that has the sole purpose of betting against the startup market: Snow Ventures.

The firm’s founder, Alexander Campbell, spent the financial crisis on the prop desk at Lehman Brothers. Later, as an entrepreneur-in-residence at Thrive Capital, he learned about venture capital. He saw plenty of parallels between the VC world and the over-leveraged investment banks of the mid-2000s: lots of structure, illiquidity, people protecting themselves with random clauses and documents that are difficult to unravel, “vicious, nasty” debt, and a general lack of transparency in the market.

“I saw a lot of early investors, founders and employees getting subordinated, not really understanding that if your company takes $400 million on a $1.5 billion post-money valuation, it means you just got pushed 100 spots back in the cafeteria line,” Campbell says. What’s worse, he saw lots of founders and startup employees take the tiny amount of liquidity they had and plow it into another illiquid asset—San Francisco real estate.

So Campbell started his own fund aimed at helping the people who own startup shares—founders and employees, mostly—balance their risk. According to Campbell, even sophisticated people in the startup world don’t always realize how much macroeconomic risk they’re taking on. In Silicon Valley, particularly during past few boom years, macro factors like interest rates, oil prices, and the Chinese economy can seem like distant, irrelevant concerns. But the startup economy is absolutely tied to the macro environment, Campbell says. And right now he believes the the startup economy looks like “a country that’s running a current account deficient that’s depending on foreign capital for liquidity.” The front door of Snow Ventures’ website declares: Winter is coming.

It’s tough to play the doomsayer in Silicon Valley, where it’s normal or even encouraged to take irrational risks. (It’s even worse to be the one profiting off of the failures of others. A big theme in the 2015 film The Big Short is the ethical implications of betting against people losing their homes.) Campbell admits that. Responses to his fund vary, he says. Employees and very early stage investors want to hedge. The early stage investors “are doing the hard work of taking the coffee meetings,” he says. “They know the system is subordinating them and they don’t have enough liquidity to hedge.”

Currently, Snow Ventures is managing a small amount of money from friends and family, using the strategy I described in yesterday’s Term Sheet. The firm shorts publicly traded stocks that are exposed to the startup market and overvalued (Campbell counts Facebook (FB) and Chinese tech companies in this group) as well as publicly traded hedge funds that have large stakes in these companies.

The plan is to put together enough capital to ask a bank to “make a market” for Snow Ventures, similar to what Michael Burry of Scion Capital did in The Big Short.

The only problem is that the startup bubble could collapse before Campbell’s fund is up and running. “If the market is down, it’s not the best time to buy protection,” he says.

Campbell isn’t hoping for a downturn in the startup market. But “if it were to happen, this is what you would want to do,” he says.

About the Author
By Erin Griffith
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Tech

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in Tech

Man in black in front of a blue background.
Big TechSpaceX
SpaceX revenue surges to $7.8 billion, blowing past Wall Street expectations by nearly $1 billion
By Amanda GerutAugust 4, 2026
18 minutes ago
OpenAI president Greg Brockman: We ‘contort’ ourselves around computers, clicking and typing is a ‘phase’
NewslettersEye on AI
OpenAI president Greg Brockman: We ‘contort’ ourselves around computers, clicking and typing is a ‘phase’
By Emily ForliniAugust 4, 2026
1 hour ago
Sam Altman and Tim Cook.
Big TechApple
OpenAI fires back at Apple, publishing private emails to counter trade-secret claims
By Beatrice NolanAugust 4, 2026
2 hours ago
Photo of Hank Green
AIYouTube
‘I’m mortified’: YouTube star Hank Green apologizes for ChatGPT overuse after fans accuse him of including a prompt by mistake
By Sasha RogelbergAugust 4, 2026
3 hours ago
Photo of Tony Xu
SuccessEntrepreneurs
DoorDash CEO Tony Xu once thought his $87 billion company would only make $100 million. He tells founders to be ‘greedy’ and dream bigger
By Emma BurleighAugust 4, 2026
5 hours ago
Patrick Collison
SuccessCareers
Despite dropping out of MIT to build $159 billion fintech Stripe, its CEO has a warning for Gen Z who want to copy him: ‘That was a poor intuition’
By Preston ForeAugust 4, 2026
6 hours ago

Most Popular

How Zohran Mamdani's pied-à-terre tax exposed an epidemic of 'ghost cars' instead
Personal Finance
How Zohran Mamdani's pied-à-terre tax exposed an epidemic of 'ghost cars' instead
By Catherina GioinoAugust 4, 2026
14 hours ago
Bars, bowling alleys, and movie theaters cost too much to run and visit. Americans have run out of places to hang out and we're paying with our health
North America
Bars, bowling alleys, and movie theaters cost too much to run and visit. Americans have run out of places to hang out and we're paying with our health
By Catherina GioinoAugust 2, 2026
2 days ago
Wall Street bulls are starting to admit the earnings bubble is real—and the 60/40 portfolio may be the first casualty
Investing
Wall Street bulls are starting to admit the earnings bubble is real—and the 60/40 portfolio may be the first casualty
By Nick LichtenbergAugust 3, 2026
1 day ago
Ray Dalio on the AI bubble nearing 1929, 2000 levels and the lesson people always forget: 'Wealth is not the same as money'
Investing
Ray Dalio on the AI bubble nearing 1929, 2000 levels and the lesson people always forget: 'Wealth is not the same as money'
By Nick LichtenbergAugust 4, 2026
14 hours ago
The Iran war already has a winner: The world’s largest shipbroker notching record earnings from the 'exceptional volatility' in the Strait of Hormuz
Energy
The Iran war already has a winner: The world’s largest shipbroker notching record earnings from the 'exceptional volatility' in the Strait of Hormuz
By Sasha RogelbergAugust 3, 2026
1 day ago
Electric air taxis are finally ready for takeoff
Magazine
Electric air taxis are finally ready for takeoff
By Alexei OreskovicAugust 3, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.